KC · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 9 vs NYJ, who allow the 21st-most points to WRs — recently Caleb Douglas put up 19 on them (W7), Jalen Nailor put up 9.8 on them (W8).
18.3 PPR points against DEN on 7/8 rec, 53 yd, 1 TD — beat his 13.2 projection by 5.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Rashee Rice projects 15.7 PPR points in week 9 vs NYJ — the 21st-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 15.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NYJ: 208.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.97/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYJ defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 62.5 receiving yards · 36% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 4 games): 61.2% offensive snaps · 6.3 targets/game, 20.5% target share · 20.5% air-yard share (aDOT 6.1) · 5 catches for 60.8 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (8 games): 74.9% offensive snaps, 9.8 targets/game, 29% target share, 13.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.3), 6.6 catches for 71.4 yards/game, 6 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 0.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.9 · median 11.9 · ceiling 21.7 — 65% chance of 10+, 35% of 15+, 16% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Rashee Rice in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 8 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 21st |
| W10 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 15 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 16th |
| W11 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 22 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 16.4 | 6th · soft |
| W12 | @ BUF | Thu, Nov 26 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W13 | @ LAR | Thu, Dec 3 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 24th |
| W14 | @ CIN | Sun, Dec 13 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 12th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DEN | 7/8 rec, 53 yd, 1 TD | 11.3 | 14.8 | 18.3 |
| W3 | MIA | 7/9 rec, 88 yd | 8.8 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| W2 | IND | 4/6 rec, 83 yd | 8.3 | 10.3 | 12.3 |
| W1 | DEN | 2/2 rec, 19 yd, 1 TD | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.9 |