BAL — Week 9 vs JAX, who allow the 9th-most points to WRs — recently Jaylin Noel put up 16.7 on them (W6), Josh Downs put up 8.3 on them (W8).
3.2 PPR points against BUF on 1/3 rec, 22 yd — right on his 5.6 projection (-2.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Rashod Bateman projects 4.7 PPR points in week 9 vs JAX — the 9th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 6.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs JAX: 264.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.64/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 1.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 9th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 15.5 receiving yards · 10% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 70.6% offensive snaps · 3.6 targets/game, 12.9% target share · 23.6% air-yard share (aDOT 13.8) · 2.4 catches for 36 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 69.3% offensive snaps, 2.9 targets/game, 11.9% target share, 17.5% air-yard share (aDOT 12.3), 1.5 catches for 17.2 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.8 · median 2.7 · ceiling 7.9 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Rashod Bateman in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs JAX | Thu, Nov 5 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 9th |
| W10 | vs LAC | Mon, Nov 16 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 18th |
| W11 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 22 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 25th · tough |
| W12 | @ HOU | Sun, Nov 29 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4th · soft |
| W14 | vs TB | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 26th · tough |
| W15 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BUF | 1/3 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| W7 | CIN | 2/4 rec, 33 yd | 3.3 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| W5 | ATL | 5/6 rec, 62 yd | 6.2 | 8.7 | 11.2 |
| W4 | TEN | 2/2 rec, 46 yd | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| W3 | DAL | 2/3 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| W2 | NO | 7/9 rec, 88 yd, 1 TD | 14.8 | 18.3 | 21.8 |