BUF — Week 2 vs DET, who allow the 17th-most points to RBs — recently Kendre Miller put up 9 on them (W1).
0.3 PPR points against HOU on 1 car, 3 yd — missed his 3.9 projection by 3.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ray Davis projects 4.3 PPR points in week 2 vs DET — the 17th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 0.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DET: 91 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.64 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 17th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 11.5% offensive snaps · 0.5 carries/game (1.8% of team carries) · 2.3% of the backfield's touches · 1.5 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 14.3% offensive snaps, 3.4 carries/game (10.6% of team carries), 14% of the backfield's touches, 0.8 targets/game, 2.8% target share, 16.2 rushing and 5.1 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. (2025) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0 · median 2 · ceiling 11.3 — 14% chance of 10+, 3% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ray Davis in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 17th |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 16th |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 23rd |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 19th |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 31st · tough |
| W8 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | HOU | 1 car, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |