PIT — Week 10 at CIN, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Derrick Henry put up 4.9 on them (W7), Tony Pollard put up 25.7 on them (W8).
11.6 PPR points against CLE on 15 car, 56 yd, 1 TD — beat his 8.6 projection by 3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Rico Dowdle projects 9.5 PPR points in week 10 at CIN — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 11.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CIN: 122.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.89 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 40.4% offensive snaps · 9.2 carries/game (35.7% of team carries) · 40.4% of the backfield's touches · 3.4 targets/game, 9.9% target share · 34.8 rushing and 16.4 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 56.1% offensive snaps, 13.9 carries/game (51.2% of team carries), 59.2% of the backfield's touches, 2.9 targets/game, 11% target share, 63.3 rushing and 17.5 receiving yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Rico Dowdle in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W10 | @ CIN | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 21st |
| W11 | @ PHI | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 13th |
| W12 | vs DEN | Fri, Nov 27 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 11th |
| W13 | vs HOU | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 14th |
| W14 | @ JAX | Mon, Dec 14 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 32nd · tough |
| W15 | vs BAL | Sun, Dec 20 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 23rd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CLE | 15 car, 56 yd, 1 TD | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| W7 | NO | 9 car, 41 yd · 6/6 rec, 45 yd | 8.6 | 11.6 | 14.6 |
| W6 | TB | 7 car, 40 yd · 3/4 rec, 9 yd | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7.9 |
| W2 | NE | 7 car, 22 yd · 2/2 rec, 22 yd | 4.4 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| W1 | ATL | 8 car, 15 yd · 2/5 rec, 6 yd | 2.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |