DAL — Week 9 at IND, who allow the 23rd-most points to WRs — recently Justin Jefferson put up 4.4 on them (W7), Brian Thomas Jr. put up 7.2 on them (W8).
13.1 PPR points against ARI on 1 car, 3 yd · 3/4 rec, 38 yd, 1 TD — beat his 9.2 projection by 3.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ryan Flournoy projects 8.7 PPR points in week 9 at IND — the 23rd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 13.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs IND: 226.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.87/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 39.5 receiving yards · 27% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 73.5% offensive snaps · 5.5 targets/game, 15% target share · 13.5% air-yard share (aDOT 7.1) · 3.8 catches for 42.8 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 44.8% offensive snaps, 3.7 targets/game, 11.1% target share, 10.5% air-yard share (aDOT 8.3), 2.7 catches for 31.7 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.1 · median 5.7 · ceiling 14.2 — 24% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ryan Flournoy in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 23rd |
| W10 | vs SF | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 22nd |
| W11 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | vs PHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 1st · soft |
| W13 | @ SEA | Mon, Dec 7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 32nd · tough |
| W15 | @ LAR | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | ARI | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/4 rec, 38 yd, 1 TD | 10.1 | 11.6 | 13.1 |
| W7 | PHI | 4/4 rec, 70 yd | 7.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| W6 | GB | 7/9 rec, 40 yd, 1 TD | 10.0 | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| W5 | TB | 3/4 rec, 90 yd | 9.0 | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| W4 | HOU | 4/5 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.7 |
| W3 | BAL | 2/8 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| W2 | WAS | 5/6 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| W1 | NYG | 2/4 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 |