CIN — Week 9 at ATL, who allow the 7th-most points to RBs — recently Christian McCaffrey put up 16 on them (W7), Bucky Irving put up 21 on them (W8).
2.9 PPR points against TEN on 4 car, 10 yd · 1/1 rec, 9 yd — missed his 9.1 projection by 6.2. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Samaje Perine projects 6.5 PPR points in week 9 at ATL — the 7th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 8.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ATL: 118.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.34 a carry · 1.1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 7th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how ATL defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 19.5 rushing yards · 4.5 receiving yards · 23% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 35% offensive snaps · 5 carries/game (22.9% of team carries) · 24.9% of the backfield's touches · 1.6 targets/game, 4.4% target share · 19.4 rushing and 10 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 35.1% offensive snaps, 5.6 carries/game (25% of team carries), 26.9% of the backfield's touches, 1.4 targets/game, 4.1% target share, 25.5 rushing and 5.8 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 1.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 4.5 · ceiling 11.6 — 13% chance of 10+, 6% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Samaje Perine in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 7th · soft |
| W10 | vs PIT | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 27th · tough |
| W11 | @ WAS | Mon, Nov 23 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 26th · tough |
| W12 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 1st · soft |
| W13 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 16th |
| W14 | vs KC | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TEN | 4 car, 10 yd · 1/1 rec, 9 yd | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| W7 | BAL | 4 car, 16 yd, 1 TD | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| W5 | MIA | 14 car, 68 yd · 2/2 rec, 10 yd, 1 TD | 13.8 | 14.8 | 15.8 |
| W4 | JAX | 3 car, 7 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| W3 | PIT | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/3 rec, 5 yd | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| W2 | HOU | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1 rec, 16 yd | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| W1 | TB | 5 car, 20 yd · 3/3 rec, 30 yd | 5.0 | 6.5 | 8.0 |