IND — Week 8 at JAX, who allow the 32nd-most points to RBs — recently Will Shipley put up 7.3 on them (W5), Jawhar Jordan put up 11 on them (W6).
5.8 PPR points against MIN on 11 car, 46 yd · 1/1 rec, 2 yd — right on his 3.0 projection (+2.8). The week 8 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Seth McGowan projects 4.3 PPR points in week 8 at JAX — the 32nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 8 angle vs JAX: 72.2 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.23 a carry · 0.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 8): 22.5 rushing yards · 21% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 20.6% offensive snaps · 4.6 carries/game (16% of team carries) · 18.2% of the backfield's touches · 0.7 targets/game, 2.5% target share · 19.1 rushing and 1.7 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 8 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.6 · median 2.6 · ceiling 8.9 — 8% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Seth McGowan in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | @ JAX | Sun, Nov 1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 32nd · tough |
| W9 | vs DAL | Sun, Nov 8 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 7th · soft |
| W10 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5th · soft |
| W11 | @ HOU | Thu, Nov 19 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 16th |
| W12 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 17th |
| W14 | @ PHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 15th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | MIN | 11 car, 46 yd · 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| W6 | TEN | 4 car, 27 yd | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| W5 | PIT | 5 car, 16 yd · 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| W4 | WAS | 6 car, 31 yd · 1/2 rec, 7 yd | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| W3 | HOU | 4 car, 14 yd | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |