TB — Week 9 at CHI, who allow the 13th-most points to WRs — recently A.J. Brown put up 4.8 on them (W7), Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 17.8 on them (W8).
Ted Hurst III projects 4.8 PPR points in week 9 at CHI — the 13th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CHI: 234.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 57.3% offensive snaps · 3.4 targets/game, 15.6% target share · 30.2% air-yard share (aDOT 16.1) · 1.6 catches for 24 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 3 · ceiling 8.7 — 8% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ted Hurst III in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 13th |
| W11 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 7th · soft |
| W12 | vs CAR | Mon, Nov 30 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 25th · tough |
| W13 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 18th |
| W14 | @ BAL | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 10th |
| W15 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 19th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | PIT | 3/6 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| W4 | GB | 2/3 rec, 25 yd | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| W3 | MIN | 1/3 rec, 40 yd, 1 TD | 10.0 | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| W2 | CLE | 2/7 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| W1 | CIN | 3/3 rec, 36 yd | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.6 |