CAR — Week 9 vs DEN, who allow the 27th-most points to WRs — recently Michael Wilson put up 6.6 on them (W7), Rashee Rice put up 11.3 on them (W8).
11.8 PPR points against GB on 6/11 rec, 58 yd — missed his 14.8 projection by 3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tetairoa McMillan projects 13.9 PPR points in week 9 vs DEN — the 27th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 11.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DEN: 246.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.47/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 27th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 69.5 receiving yards · 32% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 82.7% offensive snaps · 9.3 targets/game, 26.5% target share · 34.1% air-yard share (aDOT 10.7) · 6 catches for 81.3 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 87.2% offensive snaps, 7.2 targets/game, 25.7% target share, 45.9% air-yard share (aDOT 11.6), 4.1 catches for 59.6 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 3.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.3 · median 10.1 · ceiling 21.3 — 50% chance of 10+, 29% of 15+, 14% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tetairoa McMillan in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DEN | Sun, Nov 8 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 27th · tough |
| W10 | @ NO | Sun, Nov 15 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 19th |
| W11 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 22 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 10th |
| W12 | @ TB | Mon, Nov 30 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 26th · tough |
| W13 | @ MIN | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 30th · tough |
| W14 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 13 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 19th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | GB | 6/11 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 8.8 | 11.8 |
| W7 | TB | 4/6 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 |
| W6 | PHI | 6/9 rec, 86 yd | 8.6 | 11.6 | 14.6 |
| W4 | DET | 14/16 rec, 192 yd, 2 TD | 31.2 | 38.2 | 45.2 |
| W3 | CLE | 2/5 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| W2 | ATL | 5/10 rec, 101 yd | 10.1 | 12.6 | 15.1 |
| W1 | CHI | 5/8 rec, 75 yd · 1 fum | 5.5 | 8.0 | 10.5 |