TB — Week 9 at CHI, who allow the 13th-most points to WRs — recently A.J. Brown put up 4.8 on them (W7), Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 17.8 on them (W8).
Tez Johnson projects 4.1 PPR points in week 9 at CHI — the 13th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CHI: 234.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 38.9% offensive snaps · 1.9 targets/game, 7.3% target share · 25.5% air-yard share (aDOT 19.6) · 1.1 catches for 22.3 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 47.1% offensive snaps, 2.9 targets/game, 9.2% target share, 13.8% air-yard share (aDOT 11.7), 1.9 catches for 21.5 yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.6 · median 2.5 · ceiling 7.7 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tez Johnson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 13th |
| W11 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 7th · soft |
| W12 | vs CAR | Mon, Nov 30 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 25th · tough |
| W13 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 18th |
| W14 | @ BAL | Sun, Dec 13 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 10th |
| W15 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 20 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 19th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | CAR | 1 car, 14 yd · 2/2 rec, 33 yd, 1 TD | 10.7 | 11.7 | 12.7 |
| W6 | PIT | 2/3 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| W5 | DAL | 1/1 rec, 64 yd | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| W4 | GB | 1 car, 10 yd · 2/2 rec, 17 yd | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| W3 | MIN | 1/2 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W2 | CLE | 1/4 rec, 49 yd | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| W1 | CIN | 1 car, -4 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 |