NYJ — Week 1 at TEN, who allow the 4th-most points to WRs — recently Chris Olave put up 17.9 on them (W17), Parker Washington put up 14.7 on them (W18).
Tim Patrick projects 0.7 PPR points in week 1 at TEN — the 4th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs TEN: 248.3 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how TEN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 6% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 31.8% offensive snaps · 6.2% target share · 6.9% air-yard share (aDOT 10.8). TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Tim Patrick in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ TEN | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 4th · soft |
| W2 | vs GB | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 14th |
| W3 | @ DET | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | @ CHI | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2nd · soft |
| W5 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 22nd |
| W6 | @ NE | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | TEN | 1/1 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W16 | DEN | 1/1 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| W14 | IND | 5/6 rec, 78 yd, 1 TD | 13.8 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| W13 | TEN | 1/1 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| W11 | LAC | 3/4 rec, 20 yd, 1 TD | 8.0 | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| W7 | LAR | 1/1 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| W6 | SEA | 1/1 rec, 26 yd, 1 TD | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| W4 | SF | 1/1 rec, -1 yd | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| W3 | HOU | 1/1 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |