MIN — Week 9 vs BUF, who allow the 14th-most points to TEs — recently Michael Mayer put up 9.5 on them (W6), Josh Cuevas put up 1.5 on them (W8).
15.8 PPR points against DET on 4/5 rec, 58 yd, 1 TD — beat his 10.9 projection by 4.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
T.J. Hockenson projects 10.8 PPR points in week 9 vs BUF — the 14th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BUF: 269 passing yards a game allowed (7.05/attempt) · 2.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 14th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 42.5 receiving yards · 31% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 66.4% offensive snaps · 5.3 targets/game, 20% target share · 18.5% air-yard share (aDOT 7.4) · 4.4 catches for 42.1 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 77.9% offensive snaps, 4.4 targets/game, 15.9% target share, 10.2% air-yard share (aDOT 5), 3.4 catches for 29.2 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.8 · median 7.5 · ceiling 15.7 — 34% chance of 10+, 13% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare T.J. Hockenson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 14th |
| W10 | @ GB | Sun, Nov 15 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 31st · tough |
| W11 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 25th · tough |
| W12 | vs ATL | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 16th |
| W13 | vs CAR | Sun, Dec 6 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 13th |
| W14 | @ NE | Thu, Dec 10 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DET | 4/5 rec, 58 yd, 1 TD | 11.8 | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| W7 | IND | 4/5 rec, 35 yd, 1 TD | 9.5 | 11.5 | 13.5 |
| W5 | NO | 1/1 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| W4 | MIA | 13/13 rec, 119 yd | 11.9 | 18.4 | 24.9 |
| W3 | TB | 2/4 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| W2 | CHI | 3/4 rec, 29 yd | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.9 |
| W1 | GB | 4/5 rec, 36 yd, 1 TD | 9.6 | 11.6 | 13.6 |