MIN — Week 2 at CHI, who allow the 20th-most points to TEs — recently Darren Waller put up 2.8 on them (W1).
13.6 PPR points against GB on 4/5 rec, 36 yd, 1 TD — beat his 8.4 projection by 5.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
T.J. Hockenson projects 9.1 PPR points in week 2 at CHI — the 20th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 13.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CHI: 361 passing yards a game allowed (9.5/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 66% offensive snaps · 4.5 targets/game, 21.4% target share · 15% air-yard share (aDOT 5.4) · 3.5 catches for 32.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 77.9% offensive snaps, 4.4 targets/game, 15.9% target share, 10.2% air-yard share (aDOT 5), 3.4 catches for 29.2 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 3.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.6 · median 5.9 · ceiling 13.4 — 22% chance of 10+, 8% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare T.J. Hockenson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ CHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 20th |
| W3 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 24th |
| W5 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 21st |
| W7 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 25 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 18th |
| W8 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 1 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | GB | 4/5 rec, 36 yd, 1 TD | 9.6 | 11.6 | 13.6 |