TEN — Week 2 vs PHI, who allow the 18th-most points to RBs — recently Jacory Croskey-Merritt put up 11.6 on them (W1).
4.4 PPR points against NYJ on 7 car, 35 yd · 1/2 rec, -1 yd — missed his 10.0 projection by 5.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tony Pollard projects 8.9 PPR points in week 2 vs PHI — the 18th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 4.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs PHI: 132 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.13 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how PHI defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 52% offensive snaps · 10.5 carries/game (48.8% of team carries) · 54.5% of the backfield's touches · 1.5 targets/game, 6.5% target share · 49.5 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 62.5% offensive snaps, 14.2 carries/game (64% of team carries), 67.2% of the backfield's touches, 2.4 targets/game, 7.6% target share, 63.6 rushing and 12.1 receiving yards/game, 5 TD. (2025) TD luck: 5 scored vs 4.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.4 · median 6.9 · ceiling 14.4 — 29% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tony Pollard in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs PHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 18th |
| W3 | @ NYG | Sun, Sep 27 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 14th |
| W4 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 10th |
| W5 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 11 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 28th · tough |
| W6 | @ IND | Sun, Oct 18 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 3rd · soft |
| W7 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 25 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 21st |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NYJ | 7 car, 35 yd · 1/2 rec, -1 yd | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 |