KC · Questionable — Ankle — Week 9 vs NYJ, who allow the 18th-most points to TEs — recently Greg Dulcich put up 8.6 on them (W7), Brock Bowers put up 21.2 on them (W8).
11.7 PPR points against DEN on 5/7 rec, 67 yd — right on his 12.0 projection (-0.3). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Travis Kelce projects 13.2 PPR points in week 9 vs NYJ — the 18th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 9.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NYJ: 208.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.97/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYJ defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 receiving yards · 33% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 77.9% offensive snaps · 6 targets/game, 18.5% target share · 22.9% air-yard share (aDOT 6.4) · 4.1 catches for 58.6 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 81.9% offensive snaps, 6.4 targets/game, 20% target share, 18.1% air-yard share (aDOT 6.8), 4.5 catches for 50.1 yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.6 · median 9.6 · ceiling 20.1 — 49% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 11% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Travis Kelce in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 18th |
| W10 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 15 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 16th |
| W11 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 22 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ BUF | Thu, Nov 26 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 14th |
| W13 | @ LAR | Thu, Dec 3 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 27th · tough |
| W14 | @ CIN | Sun, Dec 13 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DEN | 5/7 rec, 67 yd | 6.7 | 9.2 | 11.7 |
| W7 | SEA | 4/8 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
| W6 | LAC | 4/5 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| W4 | LV | 2/4 rec, 15 yd | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| W3 | MIA | 2/2 rec, 59 yd, 1 TD | 11.9 | 12.9 | 13.9 |
| W2 | IND | 9/11 rec, 101 yd, 1 TD | 16.1 | 20.6 | 25.1 |
| W1 | DEN | 3/5 rec, 71 yd | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.1 |