KC — Week 2 vs IND, who allow the 18th-most points to TEs — recently Mark Andrews put up 4.9 on them (W1).
10.1 PPR points against DEN on 3/5 rec, 71 yd — right on his 11.0 projection (-0.9). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Travis Kelce projects 10.6 PPR points in week 2 vs IND — the 18th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs IND: 324 passing yards a game allowed (12.96/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 71% offensive snaps · 8 targets/game, 22.8% target share · 21.6% air-yard share (aDOT 5.3) · 6 catches for 86 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 81.9% offensive snaps, 6.4 targets/game, 20% target share, 18.1% air-yard share (aDOT 6.8), 4.5 catches for 50.1 yards/game, 5 TD. (2025) TD luck: 5 scored vs 4.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.5 · median 7.7 · ceiling 14.2 — 31% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Travis Kelce in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs IND | Sun, Sep 20 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 18th |
| W3 | @ MIA | Sun, Sep 27 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 24th |
| W4 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 4 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 29th · tough |
| W6 | vs LAC | Sun, Oct 18 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 5th · soft |
| W7 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 25 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 14th |
| W8 | @ DEN | Sun, Nov 1 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 16th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN | 3/5 rec, 71 yd | 7.1 | 8.6 | 10.1 |