ARI — Week 9 at SEA, who allow the 30th-most points to TEs — recently Noah Gray put up 4.4 on them (W7), Colston Loveland put up 4.5 on them (W8).
20.2 PPR points against DAL on 7/8 rec, 72 yd, 1 TD — right on his 18.5 projection (+1.7). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Trey McBride projects 15.3 PPR points in week 9 at SEA — the 30th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 19.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SEA: 169.1 passing yards a game allowed (5.48/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 30th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how SEA defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 60.5 receiving yards · 30% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 91.4% offensive snaps · 10.8 targets/game, 28.4% target share · 24% air-yard share (aDOT 6) · 8.3 catches for 68 yards/game, 5 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 91.4% offensive snaps, 9.9 targets/game, 27.9% target share, 24.6% air-yard share (aDOT 6.7), 7.4 catches for 72.9 yards/game, 11 TD. (2026) TD luck: 5 scored vs 5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.3 · median 10.6 · ceiling 19.8 — 54% chance of 10+, 26% of 15+, 10% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Trey McBride in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SEA | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 30th · tough |
| W10 | vs LAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 15.8 | 27th · tough |
| W11 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 22 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 16.1 | 6th · soft |
| W12 | vs WAS | Sun, Nov 29 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 18.9 | 2nd · soft |
| W13 | vs PHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 29th · tough |
| W15 | vs NYJ | Sun, Dec 20 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 17.2 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DAL | 7/8 rec, 72 yd, 1 TD | 13.2 | 16.7 | 20.2 |
| W7 | DEN | 10/13 rec, 111 yd, 1 TD | 17.1 | 22.1 | 27.1 |
| W6 | LAR | 7/9 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 8.8 | 12.3 |
| W5 | DET | 9/10 rec, 66 yd, 1 TD | 12.6 | 17.1 | 21.6 |
| W4 | NYG | 7/12 rec, 31 yd | 3.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 |
| W3 | SF | 9/11 rec, 75 yd | 7.5 | 12.0 | 16.5 |
| W2 | SEA | 8/10 rec, 41 yd, 1 TD | 10.1 | 14.1 | 18.1 |
| W1 | LAC | 9/13 rec, 95 yd, 1 TD | 15.5 | 20.0 | 24.5 |