BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 22nd-most points to RBs — recently Jonathan Taylor put up 17 on them (W7), Jahmyr Gibbs put up 22.8 on them (W8).
5.3 PPR points against BAL on 4 car, 4 yd · 3/3 rec, 19 yd — right on his 4.4 projection (+0.9). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ty Johnson projects 4.9 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 22nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 7.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIN: 116.7 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.54 a carry · 0.6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 11% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 23.8% offensive snaps · 1.2 carries/game (3.8% of team carries) · 14.2% of the backfield's touches · 3 targets/game, 12% target share · 2 rushing and 34.8 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 29.6% offensive snaps, 2.9 carries/game (9.1% of team carries), 16.4% of the backfield's touches, 1.9 targets/game, 6.8% target share, 11.8 rushing and 15.5 receiving yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1 · median 3.2 · ceiling 9.3 — 7% chance of 10+, 2% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ty Johnson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 22nd |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 12th |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 10th |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 24th |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 25th · tough |
| W14 | @ GB | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BAL | 4 car, 4 yd · 3/3 rec, 19 yd | 2.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| W6 | LV | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2 rec, 24 yd | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| W5 | LAR | 4/4 rec, 72 yd | 7.2 | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| W4 | NE | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| W3 | LAC | 4/4 rec, 50 yd | 5.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 |