TEN — Week 2 vs PHI, who allow the 18th-most points to RBs — recently Jacory Croskey-Merritt put up 11.6 on them (W1).
4.4 PPR points against NYJ on 3 car, 12 yd · 2/4 rec, 12 yd — missed his 8.2 projection by 3.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tyjae Spears projects 7.7 PPR points in week 2 vs PHI — the 18th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 4.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs PHI: 132 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.13 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how PHI defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 50% offensive snaps · 5 carries/game (23.3% of team carries) · 36.4% of the backfield's touches · 3 targets/game, 13% target share · 26.5 rushing and 20.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 45.9% offensive snaps, 5.5 carries/game (24.8% of team carries), 36.1% of the backfield's touches, 3.8 targets/game, 12.3% target share, 21.8 rushing and 20.3 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. (2025) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.3 · median 5.4 · ceiling 12.9 — 19% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyjae Spears in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs PHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 18th |
| W3 | @ NYG | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 14th |
| W4 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 10th |
| W5 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 28th · tough |
| W6 | @ IND | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W7 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 21st |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NYJ | 3 car, 12 yd · 2/4 rec, 12 yd | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.4 |