ARI — Week 9 at SEA, who allow the 18th-most points to RBs — recently Kenneth Walker III put up 5.7 on them (W7), D'Andre Swift put up 25.9 on them (W8).
36.1 PPR points against DAL on 11 car, 147 yd, 1 TD · 5/5 rec, 44 yd, 1 TD — beat his 8.4 projection by 27.7. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tyler Allgeier projects 12.2 PPR points in week 9 at SEA — the 18th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 16.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SEA: 94 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.5 a carry · 0.9 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how SEA defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 50.5 rushing yards · 12.5 receiving yards · 33% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 52.5% offensive snaps · 9 carries/game (34.6% of team carries) · 42.5% of the backfield's touches · 2.8 targets/game, 7% target share · 40.4 rushing and 16 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 30.2% offensive snaps, 8.4 carries/game (30% of team carries), 28.5% of the backfield's touches, 0.9 targets/game, 3.2% target share, 30.2 rushing and 5.6 receiving yards/game, 8 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1 · median 8.5 · ceiling 22.9 — 43% chance of 10+, 26% of 15+, 14% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyler Allgeier in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SEA | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 18th |
| W10 | vs LAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 28th · tough |
| W11 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 22 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 24th |
| W12 | vs WAS | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 26th · tough |
| W13 | vs PHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 13th |
| W15 | vs NYJ | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 12th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DAL | 11 car, 147 yd, 1 TD · 5/5 rec, 44 yd, 1 TD | 31.1 | 33.6 | 36.1 |
| W7 | DEN | 8 car, 19 yd · 3/3 rec, 30 yd | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7.9 |
| W6 | LAR | 18 car, 38 yd · 1/2 rec, 10 yd | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| W5 | DET | 3 car, 7 yd · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| W4 | NYG | 8 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 7 yd | 10.9 | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| W3 | SF | 2 car, -1 yd · 4/4 rec, 10 yd | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.9 |
| W2 | SEA | 5 car, 10 yd · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| W1 | LAC | 17 car, 61 yd · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 |