NO — Week 2 at BAL, who allow the 28th-most points to QBs — recently Daniel Jones put up 10 on them (W1).
25.2 PPR points against DET on 35/56, 410 pass yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 8 yd · 1 fum — beat his 17.2 projection by 8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tyler Shough projects 15.5 PPR points in week 2 at BAL — the 28th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 25.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BAL: 166 passing yards a game allowed (5.35/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 28th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 45 attempts/game, 68.9% completions, 7.4 yards/attempt, 331 passing yards/game, 4 TD to 2 INT · 6.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (11 games): 83.5% offensive snaps, 29.7 attempts/game, 67.6% completions, 7.3 yards/attempt, 216.7 passing yards/game, 10 TD to 6 INT, 4.1 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 10 thrown vs 7.7 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.2 · median 15.4 · ceiling 22.6 — 83% chance of 10+, 53% of 15+, 21% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyler Shough in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BAL | Sun, Sep 20 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 28th · tough |
| W3 | vs LV | Sun, Sep 27 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 13th |
| W4 | vs ATL | Mon, Oct 5 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 25th · tough |
| W5 | vs MIN | Sun, Oct 11 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 11th |
| W6 | @ NYG | Sun, Oct 18 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 19th |
| W7 | vs PIT | Sun, Oct 25 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DET | 35/56, 410 pass yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 8 yd · 1 fum | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 |