NO — Week 9 vs CLE, who allow the 25th-most points to QBs — recently Cam Ward put up 6.7 on them (W7), Aaron Rodgers put up 5.9 on them (W8).
Tyler Shough projects 15.3 PPR points in week 9 vs CLE — the 25th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 14.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CLE: 214.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.55/attempt) · 1.4 passing TDs/gm · 2.6 sacks and 0.8 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 8.6 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CLE defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 227.5 passing yards · 1.59 passing TDs · 11.5 rushing yards · 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 99.6% offensive snaps · 39 attempts/game, 67% completions, 6.3 yards/attempt, 245.9 passing yards/game, 13 TD to 6 INT · 3.4 carries/game. 2025 baseline (11 games): 83.5% offensive snaps, 29.7 attempts/game, 67.6% completions, 7.3 yards/attempt, 216.7 passing yards/game, 10 TD to 6 INT, 4.1 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 13 thrown vs 11.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.7 · median 15.1 · ceiling 23.3 — 78% chance of 10+, 51% of 15+, 25% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyler Shough in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CLE | Sun, Nov 8 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 25th · tough |
| W10 | vs CAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 18th |
| W11 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 22 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ CIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 14th |
| W13 | vs GB | Sun, Dec 6 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 27th · tough |
| W14 | @ CAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | PIT | 30/38, 278 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| W6 | NYG | 16/30, 144 pass yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 32 yd, 1 TD | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| W5 | MIN | 16/25, 96 pass yd, 2 INT | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| W4 | ATL | 30/48, 286 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 5 yd | 15.9 | 15.9 | 15.9 |
| W3 | LV | 29/42, 255 pass yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 36 yd · 2 fum | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 |
| W2 | BAL | 27/34, 252 pass yd, 1 TD · 9 car, 23 yd, 1 TD | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| W1 | DET | 35/56, 410 pass yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 8 yd · 1 fum | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 |