IND — Week 9 vs DAL, who allow the 19th-most points to TEs — recently Dallas Goedert put up 4.8 on them (W7), Trey McBride put up 13.2 on them (W8).
5.8 PPR points against JAX on 4/10 rec, 18 yd — missed his 10.7 projection by 4.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tyler Warren projects 13.2 PPR points in week 9 vs DAL — the 19th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 12.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DAL: 244.1 passing yards a game allowed (7.45/attempt) · 1.9 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 19th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 42.5 receiving yards · 32% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 87.8% offensive snaps · 7.7 targets/game, 23.4% target share · 14% air-yard share (aDOT 4.3) · 5.7 catches for 38.5 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 83.8% offensive snaps, 6.6 targets/game, 21.5% target share, 14.7% air-yard share (aDOT 5.4), 4.5 catches for 48.1 yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.8 · median 9.4 · ceiling 17.5 — 47% chance of 10+, 19% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyler Warren in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DAL | Sun, Nov 8 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 19th |
| W10 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | @ HOU | Thu, Nov 19 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 28th · tough |
| W12 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 29 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 22nd |
| W14 | @ PHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 29th · tough |
| W15 | @ TEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | JAX | 4/10 rec, 18 yd | 1.8 | 3.8 | 5.8 |
| W5 | PIT | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 7/9 rec, 83 yd | 14.4 | 17.9 | 21.4 |
| W4 | WAS | 5/5 rec, 41 yd | 4.1 | 6.6 | 9.1 |
| W3 | HOU | 1 car, 2 yd · 9/10 rec, 55 yd | 5.7 | 10.2 | 14.7 |
| W2 | KC | 1 car, 3 yd · 6/7 rec, 21 yd, 1 TD | 8.4 | 11.4 | 14.4 |
| W1 | BAL | 3/5 rec, 13 yd, 1 TD | 7.3 | 8.8 | 10.3 |