IND — Week 2 at KC, who allow the 10th-most points to TEs — recently Evan Engram put up 10.3 on them (W1).
10.3 PPR points against BAL on 3/5 rec, 13 yd, 1 TD — missed his 13.9 projection by 3.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Tyler Warren projects 11.3 PPR points in week 2 at KC — the 10th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs KC: 131 passing yards a game allowed (4.68/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 93% offensive snaps · 6 targets/game, 20.3% target share · 1.7% air-yard share (aDOT 0.8) · 4.5 catches for 17 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 83.8% offensive snaps, 6.6 targets/game, 21.5% target share, 14.7% air-yard share (aDOT 5.4), 4.5 catches for 48.1 yards/game, 5 TD. (2025) TD luck: 5 scored vs 8.3 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.4 · median 8.4 · ceiling 14.7 — 37% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Tyler Warren in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ KC | Sun, Sep 20 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 10th |
| W3 | vs HOU | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6th · soft |
| W4 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 4 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 3rd · soft |
| W5 | @ PIT | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.2 | – |
| W6 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 18 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 15th |
| W7 | @ MIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 9th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL | 3/5 rec, 13 yd, 1 TD | 7.3 | 8.8 | 10.3 |