HOU — Week 2 vs CIN, who allow the 20th-most points to RBs — recently Bucky Irving put up 13.3 on them (W1).
5.0 PPR points against BUF on 9 car, 42 yd · 1/1 rec, -2 yd — missed his 8.1 projection by 3.1. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Woody Marks projects 9.0 PPR points in week 2 vs CIN — the 20th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CIN: 89 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.45 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 51% offensive snaps · 8.5 carries/game (34% of team carries) · 43.6% of the backfield's touches · 3.5 targets/game, 7.4% target share · 25 rushing and 12.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 51.5% offensive snaps, 12.3 carries/game (43.7% of team carries), 51.9% of the backfield's touches, 2.3 targets/game, 6.8% target share, 43.9 rushing and 13 receiving yards/game, 5 TD. (2025) TD luck: 5 scored vs 8.9 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.8 · median 6.7 · ceiling 15 — 29% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 5% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Woody Marks in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 20 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 20th |
| W3 | @ IND | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | vs DAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 9th |
| W5 | @ TEN | Sun, Oct 11 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 12th |
| W6 | @ JAX | Sun, Oct 18 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 27th · tough |
| W7 | vs NYG | Sun, Oct 25 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 14th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BUF | 9 car, 42 yd · 1/1 rec, -2 yd | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |