HOU — Week 9 at LAC, who allow the 18th-most points to WRs — recently Xavier Worthy put up 7.3 on them (W6), Puka Nacua put up 14 on them (W8).
Xavier Hutchinson projects 4.2 PPR points in week 9 at LAC — the 18th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LAC: 207.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.42/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how LAC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 22.5 receiving yards · 14% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 53.3% offensive snaps · 5.7 targets/game, 17.6% target share · 18.6% air-yard share (aDOT 11.1) · 3 catches for 36.9 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 57.5% offensive snaps, 3.6 targets/game, 11.2% target share, 13.2% air-yard share (aDOT 10.2), 2.2 catches for 26.8 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1 · median 2.6 · ceiling 6.9 — 5% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Xavier Hutchinson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 18th |
| W10 | @ CLE | Sun, Nov 15 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 20th |
| W11 | vs IND | Thu, Nov 19 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 23rd |
| W12 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 29 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 10th |
| W13 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 6 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 28th · tough |
| W14 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 14th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | NYG | 2 car, 12 yd · 3/6 rec, 17 yd, 1 TD | 8.9 | 10.4 | 11.9 |
| W6 | JAX | 2/3 rec, 10 yd | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| W5 | TEN | 4/5 rec, 65 yd | 6.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| W4 | DAL | 3/5 rec, 46 yd | 4.6 | 6.1 | 7.6 |
| W3 | IND | 2 car, 4 yd · 3/6 rec, 51 yd | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| W2 | CIN | 3/9 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.7 |
| W1 | BUF | 3/6 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.2 |