MIN · Questionable — Knee — Week 2 at CHI, who allow the 7th-most points to RBs — recently Chuba Hubbard put up 20.7 on them (W1).
10.0 PPR points against GB on 12 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 0/1 rec, 0 yd — right on his 9.1 projection (+0.9). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Aaron Jones projects 14.0 PPR points in week 2 at CHI — the 7th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 10 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CHI: 125 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.68 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 7th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 46% offensive snaps · 17.5 carries/game (56.5% of team carries) · 64.3% of the backfield's touches · 0.5 targets/game, 2.2% target share · 72.5 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 55.1% offensive snaps, 11 carries/game (46.8% of team carries), 59.5% of the backfield's touches, 3.4 targets/game, 14.1% target share, 45.7 rushing and 16.6 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 3.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.6 · median 11.6 · ceiling 23.4 — 59% chance of 10+, 30% of 15+, 12% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Aaron Jones in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ CHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 7th · soft |
| W3 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 27 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 15th |
| W4 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 4 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 4th · soft |
| W5 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 11 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 5th · soft |
| W7 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 25 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 3rd · soft |
| W8 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 1 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | GB | 12 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |