MIN — Week 9 vs BUF, who allow the 6th-most points to RBs — recently Ashton Jeanty put up 11.8 on them (W6), Derrick Henry put up 12 on them (W8).
6.0 PPR points against DET on 5 car, 22 yd · 2/2 rec, 18 yd — missed his 9.9 projection by 3.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Aaron Jones Sr. projects 9.6 PPR points in week 9 vs BUF — the 6th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 9.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BUF: 97.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.85 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 34.5 rushing yards · 11.5 receiving yards · 27% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 61.7% offensive snaps · 15.7 carries/game (55.3% of team carries) · 69.7% of the backfield's touches · 3 targets/game, 10.6% target share · 65.4 rushing and 12.9 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 55.1% offensive snaps, 11 carries/game (46.8% of team carries), 59.5% of the backfield's touches, 3.4 targets/game, 14.1% target share, 45.7 rushing and 16.6 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 1.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4 · median 7.6 · ceiling 14.7 — 30% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Aaron Jones Sr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 6th · soft |
| W10 | @ GB | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 8th · soft |
| W11 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 22 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 20th |
| W12 | vs ATL | Sun, Nov 29 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7th · soft |
| W13 | vs CAR | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 2nd · soft |
| W14 | @ NE | Thu, Dec 10 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 25th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DET | 5 car, 22 yd · 2/2 rec, 18 yd | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| W7 | IND | 8 car, 26 yd · 1/1 rec, 0 yd | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| W5 | NO | 25 car, 113 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 4 yd · 1 fum | 15.7 | 17.2 | 18.7 |
| W4 | MIA | 20 car, 94 yd · 4/8 rec, 34 yd | 12.8 | 14.8 | 16.8 |
| W3 | TB | 17 car, 58 yd · 5/6 rec, 34 yd | 9.2 | 11.7 | 14.2 |
| W2 | CHI | 23 car, 105 yd | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| W1 | GB | 12 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |