PIT — Week 2 at NE, who allow the 23rd-most points to QBs — recently Drew Lock put up 12.8 on them (W1).
12.5 PPR points against ATL on 24/40, 221 pass yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -3 yd — right on his 15.1 projection (-2.6). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Aaron Rodgers projects 16.2 PPR points in week 2 at NE — the 23rd-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 12.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NE: 200 passing yards a game allowed (8.33/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 0 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 13 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NE defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 39.5 attempts/game, 59.5% completions, 5.2 yards/attempt, 204 passing yards/game, 1 TD to 1 INT · 2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (16 games): 95.7% offensive snaps, 31.1 attempts/game, 65.7% completions, 6.7 yards/attempt, 207.6 passing yards/game, 24 TD to 7 INT, 1.3 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 24 thrown vs 25.6 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7 · median 16.1 · ceiling 24.1 — 83% chance of 10+, 57% of 15+, 27% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Aaron Rodgers in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ NE | Sun, Sep 20 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 23rd |
| W3 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 27 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 27th · tough |
| W4 | @ CLE | Thu, Oct 1 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 5th · soft |
| W5 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 11 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 7th · soft |
| W6 | @ TB | Sun, Oct 18 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 20th |
| W7 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 25 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ATL | 24/40, 221 pass yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -3 yd | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |