Baker Mayfield QB

TB — Week 2 vs CLE, who allow the 5th-most points to QBs — recently Trevor Lawrence put up 26.1 on them (W1).

Week 1 recap: Baker Mayfield

11.6 PPR points against CIN on 23/28, 216 pass yd · 5 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 3 fum — missed his 17.2 projection by 5.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.

Should you start Baker Mayfield this week?

Baker Mayfield projects 17.3 PPR points in week 2 vs CLE — the 5th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 11.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.

The week 2 angle vs CLE: 245 passing yards a game allowed (10.65/attempt) · 4 passing TDs/gm · 1 sacks and 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CLE defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.

· No usage trend on file

Week 1 vs CIN: 11.6 pts · 5 car · 57 snaps

Trend reads volume — snaps, targets and carries — not fantasy points, which swing on touchdowns.

Week 2 proj

17.3

PPR · 17.3 std

Matchup

5th

CLE vs QBs

Trade value

891

#106 overall · +133/30d

Form

11.6

PPR pts/gm, last 3 played

Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 31 attempts/game, 71% completions, 6.4 yards/attempt, 199 passing yards/game, 1 TD to 1 INT · 4.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 97.1% offensive snaps, 31.9 attempts/game, 63.2% completions, 6.8 yards/attempt, 217.2 passing yards/game, 26 TD to 11 INT, 3.2 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 26 thrown vs 25.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.

Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.2 · median 17.2 · ceiling 25 — 86% chance of 10+, 67% of 15+, 34% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.

Compare Baker Mayfield in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer

Latest news

QB Baker Mayfield says Bucs need to 'fight our way out' of 0-2 start — ESPN · Sep 20 ↗
Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers Have Clear Plan to Attack the Browns — 247Sports · Sep 19 ↗
Browns vs. Buccaneers Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for NFL Week 2 (Bet on Baker Mayfield) — si.com · Sep 19 ↗
Reaction to Baker Mayfield’s Franchise-Record Deal | Bucs Insider — Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sep 19 ↗
Browns vs. Buccaneers Predictions: Baker Mayfield faces a Cleveland team that is down, but are they out? — Yahoo Sports · Sep 18 ↗

Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.

Common decisions

Baker Mayfield or Tyler Shough?Baker Mayfield or Bo Nix?Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff?Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love?Baker Mayfield or Bryce Young?Baker Mayfield or Matthew Stafford?

Upcoming schedule & projections

Wk	Opp		Std	½ PPR	PPR	Matchup
W2	vs CLE	Sun, Sep 20	17.3	17.3	17.3	5th · soft
W3	vs MIN	Sun, Sep 27	16.5	16.5	16.5	11th
W4	vs GB	Sun, Oct 4	17.5	17.5	17.5	12th
W5	@ DAL	Thu, Oct 8	18.7	18.7	18.7	4th · soft
W6	vs PIT	Sun, Oct 18	16.0	16.0	16.0	30th · tough
W7	@ CAR	Sun, Oct 25	16.4	16.4	16.4	1st · soft

The matchup

How CLE defends QBs →

Game log

Wk	Opp		Std	½ PPR	PPR
W1	CIN	23/28, 216 pass yd · 5 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 3 fum	11.6	11.6	11.6

All numbers are the 2026 season, refreshed nightly. Matchup ranks read 1–32, where 1st allows the most points to the position — the matchup you want.