TB — Week 9 at CHI, who allow the 8th-most points to QBs — recently Drake Maye put up 28.4 on them (W7), Sam Darnold put up 18.5 on them (W8).
1.4 PPR points against ATL on 0/3, 0 pass yd · 4 car, 14 yd — missed his 15.3 projection by 13.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Baker Mayfield projects 16.2 PPR points in week 9 at CHI — the 8th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 6.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CHI: 234.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.6 passing TDs/gm · 2.8 sacks and 0.6 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 14.5 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 219.5 passing yards · 1.37 passing TDs · 19.5 rushing yards · 14% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 96.8% offensive snaps · 22 attempts/game, 61.8% completions, 6.2 yards/attempt, 135.8 passing yards/game, 3 TD to 2 INT · 3.2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 97.1% offensive snaps, 31.9 attempts/game, 63.2% completions, 6.8 yards/attempt, 217.2 passing yards/game, 26 TD to 11 INT, 3.2 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 3 thrown vs 6.2 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.8 · median 16 · ceiling 24.9 — 79% chance of 10+, 56% of 15+, 31% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Baker Mayfield in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 8th · soft |
| W11 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 22 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 1st · soft |
| W12 | vs CAR | Mon, Nov 30 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 18th |
| W13 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 6 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 26th · tough |
| W14 | @ BAL | Sun, Dec 13 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 13th |
| W15 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 20 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | ATL | 0/3, 0 pass yd · 4 car, 14 yd | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| W7 | CAR | 7/11, 64 pass yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 1 yd | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| W3 | MIN | 17/34, 217 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| W2 | CLE | 21/34, 182 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 29 yd | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| W1 | CIN | 23/28, 216 pass yd · 5 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 3 fum | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |