Wondering who you should start this week — Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.
Start Sam Darnold — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.1 points. The matchup leans Sam Darnold (CHI allow the 10th-most QB points), but you can defend either call.
QBs vs CHI recently: Jordan Love 25.3 pts (W5) · Michael Penix Jr. 23.1 pts (W6) · Drake Maye 28.4 pts (W7).
🎓 The coach's read
Projections are 0.1 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Baker Mayfield has the higher floor (7.7) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Sam Darnold has the higher ceiling (26.8) — the play if you need points.
Baker Mayfield is steady — about 10% less volatile week to week than a typical QB projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Sam Darnold is boom-or-bust — about 18% more volatile week to week than a typical QB projected here — wider range in both directions.
Baker Mayfield faces ATL, 13th most generous to QBs.
Who wins a straight-up trade?
Sam Darnold carries the higher trade value — 335 against 241 (a 28% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Sam Darnold gets the most.
Momentum: Baker Mayfield +38 and Sam Darnold -373 over the last 30 days.