SF · Questionable — Calf — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 4th-most points to RBs — recently Kyren Williams put up 16.1 on them (W7), Braelon Allen put up 21.3 on them (W8).
Christian McCaffrey projects 22.9 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 4th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 23.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 144.9 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.11 a carry · 1.3 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 61.5 rushing yards · 35.5 receiving yards · 65% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 69% offensive snaps · 12 carries/game (44% of team carries) · 61.2% of the backfield's touches · 6 targets/game, 20.4% target share · 55.6 rushing and 35.9 receiving yards/game, 8 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 83.1% offensive snaps, 18.3 carries/game (64.7% of team carries), 76.7% of the backfield's touches, 7.6 targets/game, 23.4% target share, 70.7 rushing and 54.4 receiving yards/game, 17 TD. (2026) TD luck: 8 scored vs 8.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 11.1 · median 19.7 · ceiling 31.9 — 92% chance of 10+, 73% of 15+, 49% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Christian McCaffrey in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 19.0 | 20.9 | 22.9 | 4th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 18.3 | 20.4 | 22.5 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 15.6 | 17.4 | 19.2 | 22nd |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 15.6 | 17.5 | 19.4 | 18th |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 18.3 | 20.3 | 22.3 | 19th |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 16.1 | 18.0 | 19.8 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | ATL | 7 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 6/7 rec, 61 yd | 16.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 |
| W6 | WAS | 16 car, 64 yd, 2 TD · 9/10 rec, 53 yd · 1 fum | 21.7 | 26.2 | 30.7 |
| W5 | SEA | 11 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 15 yd | 14.3 | 15.8 | 17.3 |
| W4 | DEN | 15 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 3/5 rec, 18 yd | 13.0 | 14.5 | 16.0 |
| W3 | ARI | 15 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 4/5 rec, 41 yd | 17.6 | 19.6 | 21.6 |
| W2 | MIA | 10 car, 23 yd, 2 TD · 4/4 rec, 43 yd | 18.6 | 20.6 | 22.6 |
| W1 | LAR | 10 car, 68 yd · 5/8 rec, 20 yd | 8.8 | 11.3 | 13.8 |