SF — Week 2 vs MIA, who allow the 4th-most points to RBs — recently Ashton Jeanty put up 26.7 on them (W1).
13.8 PPR points against LAR on 10 car, 68 yd · 5/8 rec, 20 yd — missed his 21.0 projection by 7.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Christian McCaffrey projects 19.8 PPR points in week 2 vs MIA — the 4th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 13.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 130 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.51 a carry · 0 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 55% offensive snaps · 10 carries/game (35.1% of team carries) · 53.3% of the backfield's touches · 6 targets/game, 21.3% target share · 45.5 rushing and 31.5 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 83.1% offensive snaps, 18.3 carries/game (64.7% of team carries), 76.7% of the backfield's touches, 7.6 targets/game, 23.4% target share, 70.7 rushing and 54.4 receiving yards/game, 17 TD. (2025) TD luck: 17 scored vs 21.9 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9.8 · median 16.7 · ceiling 27.2 — 88% chance of 10+, 58% of 15+, 30% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Christian McCaffrey in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 19.8 | 4th · soft |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 15.3 | 17.7 | 20.1 | 25th · tough |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 16.5 | 2nd · soft |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 16.5 | 22nd |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 21.0 | 24th |
| W7 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 25 | 14.5 | 16.9 | 19.2 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAR | 10 car, 68 yd · 5/8 rec, 20 yd | 8.8 | 11.3 | 13.8 |