DAL — Week 9 at IND, who allow the 15th-most points to QBs — recently Kyler Murray put up 13.9 on them (W7), Trevor Lawrence put up 19.4 on them (W8).
19.8 PPR points against ARI on 19/29, 195 pass yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 20 yd, 1 TD — missed his 22.8 projection by 3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Dak Prescott projects 19.8 PPR points in week 9 at IND — the 15th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 18.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs IND: 226.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.87/attempt) · 1.8 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 0.3 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 22.3 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 15th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 262.5 passing yards · 1.68 passing TDs · 5.5 rushing yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 100% offensive snaps · 37.8 attempts/game, 65.2% completions, 6.8 yards/attempt, 255.8 passing yards/game, 14 TD to 5 INT · 2.9 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 95.1% offensive snaps, 35.3 attempts/game, 67.3% completions, 7.6 yards/attempt, 267.8 passing yards/game, 30 TD to 10 INT, 3.1 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 14 thrown vs 17.1 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9.6 · median 19.6 · ceiling 29.4 — 89% chance of 10+, 73% of 15+, 49% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Dak Prescott in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 15th |
| W10 | vs SF | Sun, Nov 15 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 23rd |
| W11 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 9th |
| W12 | vs PHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 10th |
| W13 | @ SEA | Mon, Dec 7 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 31st · tough |
| W15 | @ LAR | Sun, Dec 20 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | ARI | 19/29, 195 pass yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 20 yd, 1 TD | 19.8 | 19.8 | 19.8 |
| W7 | PHI | 15/27, 212 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 8 yd | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.3 |
| W6 | GB | 34/54, 258 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 7 yd | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| W5 | TB | 24/42, 316 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| W4 | HOU | 32/45, 335 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 7 yd | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 |
| W3 | BAL | 25/40, 276 pass yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 19 yd | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.9 |
| W2 | WAS | 26/31, 279 pass yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 26 yd | 29.8 | 29.8 | 29.8 |
| W1 | NYG | 22/34, 175 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 14 yd | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |