HOU — Week 2 vs CIN, who allow the 20th-most points to RBs — recently Bucky Irving put up 13.3 on them (W1).
28.9 PPR points against BUF on 20 car, 60 yd, 2 TD · 3/3 rec, 19 yd, 1 TD — beat his 13.9 projection by 15. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
David Montgomery projects 17.1 PPR points in week 2 vs CIN — the 20th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 28.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CIN: 89 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.45 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 49% offensive snaps · 13 carries/game (52% of team carries) · 56.4% of the backfield's touches · 2.5 targets/game, 6.1% target share · 35 rushing and 16.5 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 37.1% offensive snaps, 9.3 carries/game (35.7% of team carries), 35.3% of the backfield's touches, 1.7 targets/game, 5.4% target share, 42.1 rushing and 11.3 receiving yards/game, 8 TD. (2025) TD luck: 8 scored vs 9.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.9 · median 14.9 · ceiling 30.1 — 67% chance of 10+, 50% of 15+, 29% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare David Montgomery in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 20 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 17.1 | 20th |
| W3 | @ IND | Sun, Sep 27 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | vs DAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 14.9 | 16.1 | 17.3 | 9th |
| W5 | @ TEN | Sun, Oct 11 | 14.5 | 15.7 | 16.8 | 12th |
| W6 | @ JAX | Sun, Oct 18 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 27th · tough |
| W7 | vs NYG | Sun, Oct 25 | 15.8 | 16.9 | 18.0 | 14th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BUF | 20 car, 60 yd, 2 TD · 3/3 rec, 19 yd, 1 TD | 25.9 | 27.4 | 28.9 |