SF · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 8th-most points to WRs — recently Puka Nacua put up 13.8 on them (W7), Adonai Mitchell put up 20.2 on them (W8).
Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 10.7 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 8th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 12 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 250.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.9/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 57.6% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 14.3% target share · 5.6% air-yard share (aDOT 2.6) · 3.2 catches for 41.2 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 72.2% offensive snaps, 6.2 targets/game, 25.4% target share, 13.4% air-yard share (aDOT 5.3), 4.5 catches for 45.4 yards/game, 6 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.3 · median 7.6 · ceiling 16.1 — 37% chance of 10+, 15% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Deebo Samuel Sr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 8th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 5th · soft |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 30th · tough |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 32nd · tough |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 17th |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W5 | SEA | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/3 rec, 21 yd · 1 fum | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| W4 | DEN | 3 car, 44 yd · 5/6 rec, 26 yd, 1 TD | 13.0 | 15.5 | 18.0 |
| W3 | ARI | 2 car, 14 yd | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| W2 | MIA | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/4 rec, 31 yd | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
| W1 | LAR | 1 car, 12 yd · 6/7 rec, 48 yd, 1 TD | 12.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 |