SF — Week 2 vs MIA, who allow the 22nd-most points to WRs — recently Jack Bech put up 8.3 on them (W1).
18.0 PPR points against LAR on 1 car, 12 yd · 6/7 rec, 48 yd, 1 TD — beat his 10.1 projection by 7.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Deebo Samuel projects 10.4 PPR points in week 2 vs MIA — the 22nd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 18 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 160 passing yards a game allowed (5.33/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 42% offensive snaps · 5.5 targets/game, 19.8% target share · 11% air-yard share (aDOT 3.3) · 4.5 catches for 39.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 72.2% offensive snaps, 6.2 targets/game, 25.4% target share, 13.4% air-yard share (aDOT 5.3), 4.5 catches for 45.4 yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 5.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.3 · median 7.8 · ceiling 15.6 — 36% chance of 10+, 12% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Deebo Samuel in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 22nd |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 16th |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 29th · tough |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 30th · tough |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 15th |
| W7 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 25 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 25th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAR | 1 car, 12 yd · 6/7 rec, 48 yd, 1 TD | 12.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 |