DEN — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 22nd-most points to TEs — recently Harold Fannin put up 2.1 on them (W1).
14.3 PPR points against KC on 4/5 rec, 43 yd, 1 TD — beat his 4.0 projection by 10.3. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Evan Engram projects 4.3 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 22nd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 14.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 205 passing yards a game allowed (9.32/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 63% offensive snaps · 3 targets/game, 11% target share · 13% air-yard share (aDOT 5.8) · 2.5 catches for 30 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 42.1% offensive snaps, 4.8 targets/game, 13.7% target share, 14.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.4), 3.1 catches for 28.8 yards/game, 1 TD. (2025) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.1 · median 2.7 · ceiling 6.3 — 2% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Evan Engram in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 22nd |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 26th · tough |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 31st · tough |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5th · soft |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 14th |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 13th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 4/5 rec, 43 yd, 1 TD | 10.3 | 12.3 | 14.3 |