DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 13th-most points to TEs — recently Ko Kieft put up 1 on them (W7), Tucker Kraft put up 11.3 on them (W8).
Evan Engram projects 4.9 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 13th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 219.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.4/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 19.5 receiving yards · 17% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 53.6% offensive snaps · 3.1 targets/game, 11.3% target share · 11.1% air-yard share (aDOT 5.1) · 1.6 catches for 17 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 42.1% offensive snaps, 4.8 targets/game, 13.7% target share, 14.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.4), 3.1 catches for 28.8 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.3 · median 3 · ceiling 8 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Evan Engram in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 13th |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 17th |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3rd · soft |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 18th |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | ARI | 1/3 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| W6 | SEA | 2/2 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| W5 | LAC | 4/4 rec, 55 yd | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| W4 | SF | 1/5 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| W2 | JAX | 1/1 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W1 | KC | 4/5 rec, 43 yd, 1 TD | 10.3 | 12.3 | 14.3 |