DET — Week 2 at BUF, who allow the 15th-most points to QBs — recently C.J. Stroud put up 16.5 on them (W1).
16.4 PPR points against NO on 26/39, 206 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 2 yd — right on his 18.2 projection (-1.8). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jared Goff projects 16.3 PPR points in week 2 at BUF — the 15th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 16.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BUF: 274 passing yards a game allowed (7.21/attempt) · 2 passing TDs/gm · 3 sacks and 0 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 15 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 15th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 38.5 attempts/game, 67.5% completions, 6.9 yards/attempt, 266.5 passing yards/game, 6 TD to 0 INT · 2.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 98.5% offensive snaps, 34 attempts/game, 68% completions, 7.9 yards/attempt, 268.5 passing yards/game, 34 TD to 8 INT, 1.1 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 34 thrown vs 29.6 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.4 · median 16.2 · ceiling 23.9 — 84% chance of 10+, 59% of 15+, 26% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jared Goff in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BUF | Thu, Sep 17 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 15th |
| W3 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 27 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 26th · tough |
| W4 | @ CAR | Sun, Oct 4 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 1st · soft |
| W5 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 11 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 22nd |
| W7 | vs GB | Sun, Oct 25 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 12th |
| W8 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 1 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO | 26/39, 206 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 2 yd | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 |