DET — Week 9 at MIA, who allow the 3rd-most points to QBs — recently Geno Smith put up 24.5 on them (W7), Drake Maye put up 22.5 on them (W8).
10.0 PPR points against MIN on 18/25, 176 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 0 yd — missed his 15.7 projection by 5.7. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jared Goff projects 20.0 PPR points in week 9 at MIA — the 3rd-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 19 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIA: 230.9 passing yards a game allowed (8.29/attempt) · 2.3 passing TDs/gm · 1.3 sacks and 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 261.5 passing yards · 1.68 passing TDs · 0.5 rushing yards · 8% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 99.3% offensive snaps · 35.4 attempts/game, 67.7% completions, 7.9 yards/attempt, 280.6 passing yards/game, 15 TD to 1 INT · 2.1 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 98.5% offensive snaps, 34 attempts/game, 68% completions, 7.9 yards/attempt, 268.5 passing yards/game, 34 TD to 8 INT, 1.1 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 15 thrown vs 17.9 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9.9 · median 19.8 · ceiling 29.6 — 89% chance of 10+, 73% of 15+, 49% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jared Goff in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 3rd · soft |
| W10 | vs NE | Sun, Nov 15 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 22nd |
| W11 | vs TB | Sun, Nov 22 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 29th · tough |
| W12 | vs CHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 8th · soft |
| W13 | @ ATL | Sun, Dec 6 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 21st |
| W14 | vs TEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 9th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | MIN | 18/25, 176 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 0 yd | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| W7 | GB | 22/32, 303 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -1 yd · 1 fum | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| W5 | ARI | 19/30, 271 pass yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 |
| W4 | CAR | 32/52, 412 pass yd, 1 TD | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| W3 | NYJ | 25/32, 269 pass yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 6 yd | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 |
| W2 | BUF | 26/38, 327 pass yd, 4 TD · 3 car, 7 yd | 29.8 | 29.8 | 29.8 |
| W1 | NO | 26/39, 206 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 2 yd | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 |