BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 32nd-most points to QBs — recently Daniel Jones put up 4.6 on them (W7), Jared Goff put up 10 on them (W8).
27.6 PPR points against BAL on 21/34, 289 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 30 yd, 1 TD — beat his 24.5 projection by 3.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Josh Allen projects 22.4 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 32nd-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 25.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIN: 180.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.21/attempt) · 0.6 passing TDs/gm · 3.6 sacks and 1.1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 11.6 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 236.5 passing yards · 1.41 passing TDs · 31.5 rushing yards · 53% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 99.3% offensive snaps · 29.3 attempts/game, 65.9% completions, 8.7 yards/attempt, 256.1 passing yards/game, 11 TD to 5 INT · 7.9 carries/game. 2025 baseline (16 games): 92.2% offensive snaps, 28.8 attempts/game, 69.3% completions, 8 yards/attempt, 229.3 passing yards/game, 25 TD to 10 INT, 7 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 11 thrown vs 13.2 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 10.4 · median 22.1 · ceiling 33.7 — 91% chance of 10+, 79% of 15+, 60% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Josh Allen in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 16th |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 3rd · soft |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 22nd |
| W14 | @ GB | Sun, Dec 13 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BAL | 21/34, 289 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 30 yd, 1 TD | 27.6 | 27.6 | 27.6 |
| W6 | LV | 23/33, 255 pass yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 1 yd | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| W5 | LAR | 12/19, 210 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 121 yd, 1 TD | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 |
| W4 | NE | 23/33, 253 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 4 yd, 1 TD | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| W3 | LAC | 16/26, 204 pass yd, 2 INT · 8 car, 22 yd, 2 TD · 1/1 rec, 1 yd · 1 fum | 18.5 | 19.0 | 19.5 |
| W2 | DET | 20/31, 248 pass yd, 3 TD · 14 car, 69 yd, 2 TD | 40.8 | 40.8 | 40.8 |
| W1 | HOU | 20/29, 334 pass yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 23 yd, 2 TD | 35.7 | 35.7 | 35.7 |