BUF — Week 2 vs DET, who allow the 6th-most points to QBs — recently Tyler Shough put up 25.2 on them (W1).
35.7 PPR points against HOU on 20/29, 334 pass yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 23 yd, 2 TD — beat his 21.1 projection by 14.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Josh Allen projects 22.0 PPR points in week 2 vs DET — the 6th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 35.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DET: 410 passing yards a game allowed (7.32/attempt) · 3 passing TDs/gm · 5 sacks and 2 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 8 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 30 attempts/game, 66.7% completions, 9.7 yards/attempt, 291 passing yards/game, 5 TD to 0 INT · 10 carries/game. 2025 baseline (16 games): 92.2% offensive snaps, 28.8 attempts/game, 69.3% completions, 8 yards/attempt, 229.3 passing yards/game, 25 TD to 10 INT, 7 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 25 thrown vs 24.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 10.2 · median 22.4 · ceiling 33.6 — 90% chance of 10+, 78% of 15+, 59% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Josh Allen in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
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| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 6th · soft |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 16th |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 23rd |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 10th |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 13th |
| W8 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | HOU | 20/29, 334 pass yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 23 yd, 2 TD | 35.7 | 35.7 | 35.7 |