IND — Week 9 vs DAL, who allow the 5th-most points to WRs — recently Makai Lemon put up 12.7 on them (W7), Michael Wilson put up 18.8 on them (W8).
12.3 PPR points against JAX on 4/5 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD — right on his 9.8 projection (+2.5). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Josh Downs projects 10.9 PPR points in week 9 vs DAL — the 5th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DAL: 244.1 passing yards a game allowed (7.45/attempt) · 1.9 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 32.5 receiving yards · 25% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 81% offensive snaps · 6.4 targets/game, 20% target share · 27.6% air-yard share (aDOT 10.4) · 3.8 catches for 41.3 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 58.7% offensive snaps, 5.5 targets/game, 17.5% target share, 16.8% air-yard share (aDOT 7.5), 3.6 catches for 35.4 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.9 · median 7.7 · ceiling 15.4 — 36% chance of 10+, 13% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Josh Downs in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DAL | Sun, Nov 8 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 5th · soft |
| W10 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 15 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 29th · tough |
| W11 | @ HOU | Thu, Nov 19 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 17th |
| W14 | @ PHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 1st · soft |
| W15 | @ TEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | JAX | 4/5 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD | 8.3 | 10.3 | 12.3 |
| W7 | MIN | 2/4 rec, 18 yd | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| W6 | TEN | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/8 rec, 40 yd | 4.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 |
| W5 | PIT | 3/6 rec, 47 yd | 4.7 | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| W4 | WAS | 3/4 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| W3 | HOU | 5/11 rec, 77 yd | 7.7 | 10.2 | 12.7 |
| W2 | KC | 7/9 rec, 72 yd | 7.2 | 10.7 | 14.2 |
| W1 | BAL | 2/4 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 |