ATL — Week 9 vs CIN, who allow the 10th-most points to TEs — recently Josh Cuevas put up 3.5 on them (W7), Gunnar Helm put up 9.6 on them (W8).
2.6 PPR points against TB on 2/5 rec, 6 yd — missed his 8.1 projection by 5.5. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Kyle Pitts Sr. projects 9.8 PPR points in week 9 vs CIN — the 10th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 12.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CIN: 261 passing yards a game allowed (7.58/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 receiving yards · 26% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 58.4% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 14.4% target share · 12.1% air-yard share (aDOT 5) · 2.8 catches for 24.6 yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 88% offensive snaps, 6.9 targets/game, 22.7% target share, 21.6% air-yard share (aDOT 7.4), 5.2 catches for 54.6 yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 4 scored vs 2.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.5 · median 6.9 · ceiling 16.4 — 33% chance of 10+, 15% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Kyle Pitts Sr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CIN | Sun, Nov 8 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 10th |
| W10 | vs KC | Sun, Nov 15 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 6th · soft |
| W12 | @ MIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W13 | vs DET | Sun, Dec 6 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 1st · soft |
| W14 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 11th |
| W15 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 20 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TB | 2/5 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| W7 | SF | 5/5 rec, 22 yd, 1 TD | 8.2 | 10.7 | 13.2 |
| W6 | CHI | 5/7 rec, 60 yd, 2 TD | 18.0 | 20.5 | 23.0 |
| W5 | BAL | 5/6 rec, 42 yd, 1 TD | 10.2 | 12.7 | 15.2 |
| W4 | NO | 3/3 rec, 47 yd | 4.7 | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| W3 | GB | 1/2 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W2 | CAR | 1/3 rec, 15 yd | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |