MIN · Out — Concussion — Week 3 at TB, who allow the 20th-most points to QBs — recently Joe Burrow put up 15.2 on them (W1).
0.6 PPR points against GB on 3/5, 18 pass yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 9 yd — missed his 17.4 projection by 16.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Kyler Murray projects 18.4 PPR points in week 3 at TB — the 20th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 0.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs TB: 254 passing yards a game allowed (7.26/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 1 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 20 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how TB defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 1 game): 17% offensive snaps · 5 attempts/game, 60% completions, 3.6 yards/attempt, 18 passing yards/game, 0 TD to 1 INT · 2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (5 games): 98.8% offensive snaps, 32.2 attempts/game, 68.3% completions, 6 yards/attempt, 192.4 passing yards/game, 6 TD to 3 INT, 5.8 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 6 thrown vs 7.7 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Kyler Murray in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W3 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 27 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 20th |
| W4 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 4 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 18th |
| W5 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 11 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17th |
| W7 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 25 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 7th · soft |
| W8 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 6th · soft |
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 15th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | GB | 3/5, 18 pass yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 9 yd | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |