MIN · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 9 vs BUF, who allow the 11th-most points to QBs — recently Kirk Cousins put up 19.5 on them (W6), Joe Fagnano put up 0.9 on them (W8).
20.9 PPR points against DET on 17/29, 210 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 35 yd — beat his 17.1 projection by 3.8. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Kyler Murray projects 17.2 PPR points in week 9 vs BUF — the 11th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 17.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BUF: 269 passing yards a game allowed (7.05/attempt) · 2.1 passing TDs/gm · 2.1 sacks and 0.6 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 13.7 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 11th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 213.5 passing yards · 1.46 passing TDs · 17.5 rushing yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 86.2% offensive snaps · 25.7 attempts/game, 64.9% completions, 6.6 yards/attempt, 170.3 passing yards/game, 5 TD to 3 INT · 4.8 carries/game. 2025 baseline (5 games): 98.8% offensive snaps, 32.2 attempts/game, 68.3% completions, 6 yards/attempt, 192.4 passing yards/game, 6 TD to 3 INT, 5.8 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 5 thrown vs 6.6 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.8 · median 17 · ceiling 25.9 — 84% chance of 10+, 62% of 15+, 35% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Kyler Murray in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 11th |
| W10 | @ GB | Sun, Nov 15 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 27th · tough |
| W11 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 22 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 23rd |
| W12 | vs ATL | Sun, Nov 29 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 21st |
| W13 | vs CAR | Sun, Dec 6 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 18th |
| W14 | @ NE | Thu, Dec 10 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 22nd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DET | 17/29, 210 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 35 yd | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 |
| W7 | IND | 14/24, 150 pass yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 39 yd | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| W5 | NO | 24/30, 229 pass yd, 1 TD · 10 car, 51 yd | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| W4 | MIA | 27/37, 247 pass yd · 6 car, 16 yd | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| W3 | TB | 15/29, 168 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 17 yd | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| W1 | GB | 3/5, 18 pass yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 9 yd | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |