CHI — Week 9 vs TB, who allow the 26th-most points to WRs — recently Tetairoa McMillan put up 4 on them (W7), Jahan Dotson put up 9.5 on them (W8).
18.6 PPR points against SEA on 7/9 rec, 56 yd, 1 TD — beat his 12.4 projection by 6.2. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Luther Burden III projects 14.7 PPR points in week 9 vs TB — the 26th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 19.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs TB: 220.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.52/attempt) · 1.3 TDs/gm through the air · 1.5 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 26th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how TB defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 69.5 receiving yards · 33% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 60.1% offensive snaps · 7 targets/game, 21.7% target share · 24.3% air-yard share (aDOT 7.9) · 5.3 catches for 68.4 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 39.7% offensive snaps, 4 targets/game, 13.1% target share, 10.7% air-yard share (aDOT 7.7), 3.1 catches for 43.5 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 3.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.1 · median 10.6 · ceiling 22.8 — 52% chance of 10+, 33% of 15+, 17% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Luther Burden III in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs TB | Sun, Nov 8 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 26th · tough |
| W11 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 22 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 19th |
| W12 | @ DET | Thu, Nov 26 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 7th · soft |
| W13 | vs JAX | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 9th |
| W14 | @ MIA | Sun, Dec 13 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 14.9 | 29th · tough |
| W15 | @ BUF | Sat, Dec 19 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 3rd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | SEA | 7/9 rec, 56 yd, 1 TD | 11.6 | 15.1 | 18.6 |
| W7 | NE | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/4 rec, 130 yd, 1 TD | 19.7 | 21.7 | 23.7 |
| W6 | ATL | 8/8 rec, 95 yd | 9.5 | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| W5 | GB | 4 car, 2 yd · 4/6 rec, 47 yd | 4.9 | 6.9 | 8.9 |
| W4 | NYJ | 1 car, 11 yd · 4/6 rec, 63 yd | 7.4 | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| W3 | PHI | 1 car, 7 yd · 7/11 rec, 61 yd, 1 TD | 12.8 | 16.3 | 19.8 |
| W2 | MIN | 3/7 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| W1 | CAR | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/5 rec, 63 yd · 1 fum | 4.5 | 7.0 | 9.5 |