SEA · Out — Quadriceps — Week 10 at LV, who allow the 5th-most points to QBs — recently Matthew Stafford put up 18.5 on them (W7), Geno Smith put up 19 on them (W8).
18.5 PPR points against CHI on 17/34, 188 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 20 yd — right on his 16.3 projection (+2.2). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Sam Darnold projects 17.4 PPR points in week 10 at LV — the 5th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 15.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 250.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.9/attempt) · 2.3 passing TDs/gm · 2.4 sacks and 0.9 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 13 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 453 passing yards · 0.15 passing TDs · 5.5 rushing yards · 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 87.1% offensive snaps · 30.1 attempts/game, 60.2% completions, 7 yards/attempt, 211.1 passing yards/game, 10 TD to 9 INT · 1.6 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 96.2% offensive snaps, 28.1 attempts/game, 67.7% completions, 8.5 yards/attempt, 238.1 passing yards/game, 25 TD to 14 INT, 2.1 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 10 thrown vs 8.8 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Sam Darnold in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W10 | @ LV | Sun, Nov 15 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 5th · soft |
| W12 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 29 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 23rd |
| W13 | vs DAL | Mon, Dec 7 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 6th · soft |
| W14 | vs NYG | Sun, Dec 13 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 7th · soft |
| W15 | @ PHI | Sat, Dec 19 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10th |
| W16 | vs LAR | Fri, Dec 25 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CHI | 17/34, 188 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 20 yd | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| W7 | KC | 20/28, 257 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 17 yd | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| W6 | DEN | 27/51, 278 pass yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 19 yd | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| W5 | SF | 18/29, 195 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 5 yd | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| W4 | LAC | 13/22, 168 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| W3 | WAS | 31/45, 379 pass yd, 4 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 5 yd | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 |
| W1 | NE | 1/2, 13 pass yd | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |