BAL · Out — Hamstring — Week 3 at DAL, who allow the 26th-most points to WRs — recently Malik Nabers put up 6.9 on them (W1).
26.0 PPR points against IND on 5/6 rec, 150 yd, 1 TD — beat his 15.6 projection by 10.4. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Zay Flowers projects 16.9 PPR points in week 3 at DAL — the 26th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 26 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DAL: 230 passing yards a game allowed (7.93/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 26th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 1 game): 29% offensive snaps · 6 targets/game, 25% target share · 33.8% air-yard share (aDOT 15.2) · 5 catches for 150 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 86.5% offensive snaps, 6.9 targets/game, 29.9% target share, 36% air-yard share (aDOT 10.2), 5.1 catches for 71.2 yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 4 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Zay Flowers in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W3 | @ DAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 16.9 | 26th · tough |
| W4 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 16.5 | 17th |
| W5 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 11 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 25th · tough |
| W6 | @ CLE | Sun, Oct 18 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 2nd · soft |
| W7 | vs CIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 16.2 | 21st |
| W8 | @ BUF | Sun, Nov 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND | 5/6 rec, 150 yd, 1 TD | 21.0 | 23.5 | 26.0 |