Darren Waller · Jake Ferguson · 2026 week 4

Darren Waller or Jake Ferguson?

Wondering who you should start this week — Darren Waller or Jake Ferguson? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.

Start Darren Waller — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.4 points. The matchup leans Darren Waller (DET allow the 1st-most TE points), but you can defend either call.

Player	Wk 4	Proj (PPR)	Matchup	Form L3	Trade value	Status
Darren Waller START	vs DET	9.4	1st · soft	11.1	428	healthy
Jake Ferguson	@ HOU	9.0	19th	10.7	541	healthy

TEs vs DET recently: Juwan Johnson 11.4 pts (W1) · Dalton Kincaid 15.5 pts (W2) · Kenyon Sadiq 16.5 pts (W3).

TEs vs HOU recently: Dalton Kincaid 13 pts (W1) · Erick All 0.5 pts (W2) · Tyler Warren 5.7 pts (W3).

🎓 The coach's read

Projections are 0.4 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Jake Ferguson has the higher floor (3.3) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Darren Waller has the higher ceiling (17.7) — the play if you need points.
Jake Ferguson is steady — about 11% less volatile week to week than a typical TE projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Darren Waller faces DET, 1st most generous to TEs.
Jake Ferguson faces HOU, 19th most generous to TEs.

Who wins a straight-up trade?

Jake Ferguson carries the higher trade value — 541 against 428 (a 21% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Jake Ferguson gets the most. Momentum: Darren Waller +394 and Jake Ferguson -18 over the last 30 days.

Open in Start/Sit (any scoring) Open in the Trade Analyzer

More TE decisions

Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts?Darren Waller or Mark Andrews?Jake Ferguson or Kenyon Sadiq?Jake Ferguson or Isaiah Likely?Jake Ferguson or Dalton Schultz?

All numbers are the 2026 season, refreshed nightly.