CIN — Week 9 at ATL, who allow the 21st-most points to QBs — recently Brock Purdy put up 14 on them (W7), Baker Mayfield put up 1.4 on them (W8).
42.5 PPR points against TEN on 38/48, 462 pass yd, 5 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, 10 yd, 1 TD — beat his 22.0 projection by 20.5. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Joe Burrow projects 21.4 PPR points in week 9 at ATL — the 21st-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 32 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ATL: 237.5 passing yards a game allowed (6.6/attempt) · 1.4 passing TDs/gm · 2.3 sacks and 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how ATL defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 274.5 passing yards · 1.68 passing TDs · 5.5 rushing yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 99.1% offensive snaps · 38.1 attempts/game, 73% completions, 7.9 yards/attempt, 302.1 passing yards/game, 20 TD to 6 INT · 2.9 carries/game. 2025 baseline (8 games): 87.8% offensive snaps, 32.4 attempts/game, 66.8% completions, 7 yards/attempt, 226.1 passing yards/game, 17 TD to 5 INT, 1.8 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 20 thrown vs 14.7 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9.3 · median 21.1 · ceiling 32.9 — 89% chance of 10+, 75% of 15+, 55% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Joe Burrow in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 8 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21st |
| W10 | vs PIT | Sun, Nov 15 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 30th · tough |
| W11 | @ WAS | Mon, Nov 23 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 29 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 17th |
| W13 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 6 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 25th · tough |
| W14 | vs KC | Sun, Dec 13 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TEN | 38/48, 462 pass yd, 5 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, 10 yd, 1 TD | 42.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| W7 | BAL | 22/30, 292 pass yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 12 yd | 28.9 | 28.9 | 28.9 |
| W5 | MIA | 23/32, 190 pass yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 10 yd | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 |
| W4 | JAX | 39/54, 428 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 6 yd, 1 TD | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| W3 | PIT | 28/37, 282 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 13 yd · 1 fum | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 |
| W2 | HOU | 20/31, 207 pass yd, 2 TD · 1 car, -1 yd | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
| W1 | TB | 25/35, 254 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 20 yd | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |