JAX — Week 2 at DEN, who allow the 9th-most points to QBs — recently Patrick Mahomes put up 22.7 on them (W1).
26.1 PPR points against CLE on 18/23, 245 pass yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 3 yd — beat his 17.8 projection by 8.3. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Trevor Lawrence projects 17.2 PPR points in week 2 at DEN — the 9th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 26.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DEN: 184 passing yards a game allowed (6.81/attempt) · 2 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 23 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 9th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 88% offensive snaps · 26 attempts/game, 67.3% completions, 8.3 yards/attempt, 217 passing yards/game, 4 TD to 1 INT · 2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 96.7% offensive snaps, 32.9 attempts/game, 60.9% completions, 7.2 yards/attempt, 235.7 passing yards/game, 29 TD to 12 INT, 4.8 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 29 thrown vs 33 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.6 · median 17.1 · ceiling 25.4 — 85% chance of 10+, 65% of 15+, 35% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Trevor Lawrence in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ DEN | Sun, Sep 20 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 9th |
| W3 | vs NE | Sun, Sep 27 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 23rd |
| W4 | @ CIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 27th · tough |
| W5 | vs PHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 14th |
| W6 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 18 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 2nd · soft |
| W8 | vs IND | Sun, Nov 1 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CLE | 18/23, 245 pass yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 3 yd | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |