JAX — Week 9 at BAL, who allow the 13th-most points to QBs — recently Joe Burrow put up 28.9 on them (W7), Josh Allen put up 27.6 on them (W8).
19.4 PPR points against IND on 10/14, 210 pass yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 10 yd · 1 fum — right on his 19.8 projection (-0.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Trevor Lawrence projects 19.5 PPR points in week 9 at BAL — the 13th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 23.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BAL: 241.9 passing yards a game allowed (7.41/attempt) · 1.4 passing TDs/gm · 2.1 sacks and 0.5 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 18.8 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 94.9% offensive snaps · 28 attempts/game, 65.2% completions, 8.6 yards/attempt, 241.5 passing yards/game, 18 TD to 4 INT · 2.6 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 96.7% offensive snaps, 32.9 attempts/game, 60.9% completions, 7.2 yards/attempt, 235.7 passing yards/game, 29 TD to 12 INT, 4.8 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 18 thrown vs 14.3 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9.2 · median 19.3 · ceiling 29.3 — 89% chance of 10+, 71% of 15+, 48% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Trevor Lawrence in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ BAL | Thu, Nov 5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 13th |
| W10 | @ TEN | Sun, Nov 15 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 9th |
| W11 | @ NYG | Sun, Nov 22 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 7th · soft |
| W12 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 29 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 9th |
| W13 | @ CHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 8th · soft |
| W14 | vs PIT | Mon, Dec 14 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | IND | 10/14, 210 pass yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 10 yd · 1 fum | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 |
| W6 | HOU | 24/41, 306 pass yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 11 yd | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| W5 | PHI | 24/39, 331 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 25 yd | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| W4 | CIN | 18/23, 227 pass yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 0 yd | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
| W3 | NE | 19/29, 182 pass yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 25 yd | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| W2 | DEN | 17/29, 189 pass yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| W1 | CLE | 18/23, 245 pass yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 3 yd | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |