Wondering who you should start this week — Aaron Jones Sr. or Alvin Kamara? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.2 points. The matchup leans Aaron Jones Sr. (BUF allow the 6th-most RB points), but you can defend either call.
Player
Wk 9
Proj (PPR)
Matchup
Form L3
Trade value
Status
Aaron Jones Sr.START
vs BUF
9.6
6th · soft
9.4
923
healthy
Alvin Kamara
vs CLE
9.4
16th
10.2
680
Questionable
RBs vs BUF recently: Kyren Williams 13.6 pts (W5) · Ashton Jeanty 11.8 pts (W6) · Derrick Henry 12 pts (W8).
RBs vs CLE recently: Derrick Henry 4 pts (W6) · Tony Pollard 33.5 pts (W7) · Jaylen Warren 20.3 pts (W8).
🎓 The coach's read
Projections are 0.2 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Aaron Jones Sr. has the higher floor (4.5) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Alvin Kamara has the higher ceiling (17.4) — the play if you need points.
Aaron Jones Sr. is steady — about 29% less volatile week to week than a typical RB projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Alvin Kamara is steady — about 17% less volatile week to week than a typical RB projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Aaron Jones Sr. faces BUF, 6th most generous to RBs.
Who wins a straight-up trade?
Aaron Jones Sr. carries the higher trade value — 923 against 680 (a 26% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Aaron Jones Sr. gets the most.
Momentum: Aaron Jones Sr. -886 and Alvin Kamara -349 over the last 30 days.