Wondering who you should start this week — Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.
Start Patrick Mahomes — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.7 points. The matchup leans Patrick Mahomes (DEN allow the 21st-most QB points), but you can defend either call.
Player
Wk 8
Proj (PPR)
Matchup
Form L3
Trade value
Status
Matthew Stafford
vs LAC
16.1
26th · tough
20.9
1,110
healthy
Patrick MahomesSTART
@ DEN
16.8
21st
11.8
1,263
healthy
QBs vs LAC recently: Sam Darnold 14.3 pts (W4) · Bo Nix 7.9 pts (W5) · Patrick Mahomes 11.5 pts (W6).
QBs vs DEN recently: Justin Herbert 11.2 pts (W5) · Sam Darnold 13 pts (W6) · Jacoby Brissett 16.5 pts (W7).
🎓 The coach's read
Projections are 0.7 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Matthew Stafford has the higher floor (8.2) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher ceiling (25.1) — the play if you need points.
Matthew Stafford is steady — about 16% less volatile week to week than a typical QB projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Patrick Mahomes is steady — about 10% less volatile week to week than a typical QB projected here — higher floor, lower ceiling.
Matthew Stafford faces LAC, 26th most generous to QBs.
Who wins a straight-up trade?
Patrick Mahomes carries the higher trade value — 1,263 against 1,110 (a 12% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Patrick Mahomes gets the most.
Momentum: Matthew Stafford +189 and Patrick Mahomes -829 over the last 30 days.