Matthew Stafford · Patrick Mahomes · 2026 week 1

Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes?

Wondering who you should start this week — Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.

Start Matthew Stafford — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.1 points. The matchup leans Matthew Stafford (SF allow the 15th-most QB points), but you can defend either call.

Player	Wk 1	Proj (PPR)	Matchup	Form L3	Trade value	Status
Matthew Stafford START	vs SF	19.3	15th	24.5	1,140	healthy
Patrick Mahomes	vs DEN	19.2	25th · tough	17.6	1,558	Questionable

QBs vs SF recently: Philip Rivers 18.1 pts (W16) · Caleb Williams 23 pts (W17) · Sam Darnold 8.8 pts (W18).

QBs vs DEN recently: Trevor Lawrence 31.2 pts (W16) · Chris Oladokun 7.7 pts (W17) · Trey Lance 9.3 pts (W18).

Who wins a straight-up trade?

Patrick Mahomes carries the higher trade value — 1,558 against 1,140 (a 27% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Patrick Mahomes gets the most. Momentum: Matthew Stafford -471 and Patrick Mahomes -391 over the last 30 days.

Open in Start/Sit (any scoring) Open in the Trade Analyzer

More QB decisions

Matthew Stafford or Trevor Lawrence?Matthew Stafford or Jaxson Dart?Matthew Stafford or Bo Nix?Patrick Mahomes or Jayden Daniels?Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert?Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott?

Game logs, matchup ranks and form are the 2025 season — 2026 hasn’t kicked off. Projections, schedule and trade values are current 2026 numbers, refreshed nightly.