KC — Week 2 vs IND, who allow the 7th-most points to QBs — recently Lamar Jackson put up 25 on them (W1).
22.7 PPR points against DEN on 15/27, 184 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 23 yd, 1 TD — beat his 17.1 projection by 5.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Patrick Mahomes projects 17.7 PPR points in week 2 vs IND — the 7th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 22.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs IND: 324 passing yards a game allowed (12.96/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 0 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 40 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 7th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 37 attempts/game, 63.5% completions, 7.6 yards/attempt, 283 passing yards/game, 5 TD to 1 INT · 4.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (14 games): 97.4% offensive snaps, 35.9 attempts/game, 62.7% completions, 7.1 yards/attempt, 256.2 passing yards/game, 22 TD to 11 INT, 4.6 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 22 thrown vs 30.1 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.7 · median 17.6 · ceiling 25.4 — 86% chance of 10+, 69% of 15+, 37% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Patrick Mahomes in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs IND | Sun, Sep 20 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 7th · soft |
| W3 | @ MIA | Sun, Sep 27 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 18th |
| W4 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 13th |
| W6 | vs LAC | Sun, Oct 18 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 16th |
| W7 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 25 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 24th |
| W8 | @ DEN | Sun, Nov 1 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 9th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN | 15/27, 184 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 23 yd, 1 TD | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |