KC — Week 9 vs NYJ, who allow the 16th-most points to QBs — recently Malik Willis put up 26 on them (W7), Kirk Cousins put up 28.2 on them (W8).
25.4 PPR points against DEN on 30/41, 321 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 6 yd — beat his 18.0 projection by 7.4. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Patrick Mahomes projects 21.2 PPR points in week 9 vs NYJ — the 16th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 14.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NYJ: 208.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.97/attempt) · 1.8 passing TDs/gm · 2.5 sacks and 0.1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 16.5 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYJ defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 249.5 passing yards · 2.22 passing TDs · 9.5 rushing yards · 19% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 100% offensive snaps · 33.1 attempts/game, 66.4% completions, 7.7 yards/attempt, 256.4 passing yards/game, 12 TD to 4 INT · 3 carries/game. 2025 baseline (14 games): 97.4% offensive snaps, 35.9 attempts/game, 62.7% completions, 7.1 yards/attempt, 256.2 passing yards/game, 22 TD to 11 INT, 4.6 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 12 thrown vs 11.7 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 10.5 · median 20.9 · ceiling 31.3 — 91% chance of 10+, 78% of 15+, 55% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Patrick Mahomes in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 8 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 16th |
| W10 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 15 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 21st |
| W11 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 22 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | @ BUF | Thu, Nov 26 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 11th |
| W13 | @ LAR | Thu, Dec 3 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 20th |
| W14 | @ CIN | Sun, Dec 13 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 14th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DEN | 30/41, 321 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 6 yd | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| W7 | SEA | 19/33, 165 pass yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 14 yd | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| W6 | LAC | 23/30, 272 pass yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 16 yd | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| W4 | LV | 15/30, 225 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 0 yd | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| W3 | MIA | 20/24, 246 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 |
| W2 | IND | 32/47, 382 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 17 yd | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| W1 | DEN | 15/27, 184 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 23 yd, 1 TD | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |