CHI · Out — Hamstring — Week 2 vs MIN, who allow the 11th-most points to QBs — recently Jordan Love put up 20.5 on them (W1).
37.3 PPR points against CAR on 21/29, 269 pass yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 65 yd, 2 TD — beat his 19.6 projection by 17.7. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Caleb Williams projects 18.6 PPR points in week 2 vs MIN — the 11th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 37.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIN: 387 passing yards a game allowed (9.21/attempt) · 2 passing TDs/gm · 4 sacks and 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 11th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 27.5 attempts/game, 65.5% completions, 7.4 yards/attempt, 203.5 passing yards/game, 2 TD to 1 INT · 7.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 99.1% offensive snaps, 33.4 attempts/game, 58.1% completions, 6.9 yards/attempt, 231.9 passing yards/game, 27 TD to 7 INT, 4.5 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 27 thrown vs 33.9 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.6 · median 18.9 · ceiling 28.4 — 86% chance of 10+, 68% of 15+, 44% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Caleb Williams in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIN | Sun, Sep 20 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 11th |
| W3 | vs PHI | Mon, Sep 28 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 14th |
| W4 | vs NYJ | Sun, Oct 4 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 26th · tough |
| W5 | @ GB | Sun, Oct 11 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 12th |
| W6 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 18 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 20.7 | 25th · tough |
| W7 | vs NE | Thu, Oct 22 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 23rd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CAR | 21/29, 269 pass yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 65 yd, 2 TD | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.3 |