CHI — Week 9 vs TB, who allow the 29th-most points to QBs — recently Bryce Young put up 7.4 on them (W7), Michael Penix Jr. put up 2.1 on them (W8).
14.0 PPR points against SEA on 24/34, 247 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 1 yd — right on his 15.7 projection (-1.7). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Caleb Williams projects 18.5 PPR points in week 9 vs TB — the 29th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 17.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs TB: 220.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.52/attempt) · 1.3 passing TDs/gm · 2 sacks and 1.5 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 10.6 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 29th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how TB defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 251.5 passing yards · 1.9 passing TDs · 22.5 rushing yards · 23% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 97.2% offensive snaps · 31.6 attempts/game, 70.9% completions, 8 yards/attempt, 253.4 passing yards/game, 6 TD to 1 INT · 5.2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 99.1% offensive snaps, 33.4 attempts/game, 58.1% completions, 6.9 yards/attempt, 231.9 passing yards/game, 27 TD to 7 INT, 4.5 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 6 thrown vs 8.5 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.1 · median 18.3 · ceiling 28.3 — 86% chance of 10+, 66% of 15+, 42% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Caleb Williams in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs TB | Sun, Nov 8 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 29th · tough |
| W11 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 22 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 17th |
| W12 | @ DET | Thu, Nov 26 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 1st · soft |
| W13 | vs JAX | Sun, Dec 6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 24th |
| W14 | @ MIA | Sun, Dec 13 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 3rd · soft |
| W15 | @ BUF | Sat, Dec 19 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | SEA | 24/34, 247 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 1 yd | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| W7 | NE | 22/33, 308 pass yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 18 yd | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| W6 | ATL | 30/36, 305 pass yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 3 yd | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| W2 | MIN | 15/26, 138 pass yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 42 yd | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| W1 | CAR | 21/29, 269 pass yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 65 yd, 2 TD | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.3 |