Justin Herbert · Patrick Mahomes · 2026 week 1

Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes?

Start Justin HerbertJustin Herbert projects 1.8 PPR points clear of Patrick Mahomes in week 1, drawing ARI — the 14th-ranked matchup for QBs. The numbers behind the call are below; overrule them with your eyes open.

Player	Wk 1	Proj (PPR)	Matchup	Form L3	Trade value	Status
Justin Herbert START	vs ARI	19.2	14th	19.2	2,281	healthy
Patrick Mahomes	vs DEN	17.4	25th · tough	17.6	2,313	Questionable

QBs vs ARI recently: Kirk Cousins 18.6 pts (W16) · Joe Burrow 20.4 pts (W17) · Matthew Stafford 26.7 pts (W18).

QBs vs DEN recently: Trevor Lawrence 31.2 pts (W16) · Chris Oladokun 7.7 pts (W17) · Trey Lance 9.3 pts (W18).

Who wins a straight-up trade?

Patrick Mahomes carries the higher trade value — 2,313 against 2,281 (a 1% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Patrick Mahomes gets the most. Momentum: Justin Herbert +123 and Patrick Mahomes -179 over the last 30 days.

Open in Start/Sit (any scoring) Open in the Trade Analyzer

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Game logs, matchup ranks and form are the 2025 season — 2026 hasn’t kicked off. Projections, schedule and trade values are current 2026 numbers, refreshed nightly.