Josh Allen · Patrick Mahomes · 2026 week 9

Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes?

Wondering who you should start this week — Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.

Start Josh Allen — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.7 points. The matchup leans Josh Allen (MIN allow the 32nd-most QB points), but you can defend either call.

Player	Wk 9	Proj (PPR)	Matchup	Form L3	Trade value	Status
Josh Allen START	@ MIN	22.0	32nd · tough	25.8	6,749	healthy
Patrick Mahomes	vs NYJ	21.3	16th	14.6	1,895	healthy

QBs vs MIN recently: Tyler Shough 1.8 pts (W5) · Daniel Jones 4.6 pts (W7) · Jared Goff 10 pts (W8).

QBs vs NYJ recently: Drake Maye 23.8 pts (W6) · Malik Willis 26 pts (W7) · Kirk Cousins 28.2 pts (W8).

🎓 The coach's read

Projections are 0.7 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher floor (10.5) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Josh Allen has the higher ceiling (33.1) — the play if you need points.
Josh Allen faces MIN, 32nd most generous to QBs.
Patrick Mahomes faces NYJ, 16th most generous to QBs.

Who wins a straight-up trade?

Josh Allen carries the higher trade value — 6,749 against 1,895 (a 72% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Josh Allen gets the most. Momentum: Josh Allen +1074 and Patrick Mahomes -396 over the last 30 days.

Open in Start/Sit (any scoring) Open in the Trade Analyzer

More QB decisions

Josh Allen or Joe Burrow?Josh Allen or Drake Maye?Josh Allen or Caleb Williams?Patrick Mahomes or Caleb Williams?Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy?

All numbers are the 2026 season, refreshed nightly.