Joe Burrow · Patrick Mahomes · 2026 week 9

Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes?

Wondering who you should start this week — Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes? The start/sit call and the numbers behind it are below, plus who wins a straight-up trade. Rebuilt nightly.

Start Joe Burrow — barelyThis one is a coin flip — the projections are within 0.2 points. The matchup leans Joe Burrow (ATL allow the 21st-most QB points), but you can defend either call.

Player	Wk 9	Proj (PPR)	Matchup	Form L3	Trade value	Status
Joe Burrow START	@ ATL	21.4	21st	32	3,352	healthy
Patrick Mahomes	vs NYJ	21.2	16th	14.6	1,723	healthy

QBs vs ATL recently: Caleb Williams 16.5 pts (W6) · Brock Purdy 14 pts (W7) · Baker Mayfield 1.4 pts (W8).

QBs vs NYJ recently: Drake Maye 23.8 pts (W6) · Malik Willis 26 pts (W7) · Kirk Cousins 28.2 pts (W8).

🎓 The coach's read

Projections are 0.2 apart — too close to call on projection alone.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher floor (10.5) — the safer start if you are favoured.
Joe Burrow has the higher ceiling (32.9) — the play if you need points.
Joe Burrow is boom-or-bust — about 11% more volatile week to week than a typical QB projected here — wider range in both directions.
Joe Burrow faces ATL, 21st most generous to QBs.
Patrick Mahomes faces NYJ, 16th most generous to QBs.

Who wins a straight-up trade?

Joe Burrow carries the higher trade value — 3,352 against 1,723 (a 49% gap). In a one-for-one, the side receiving Joe Burrow gets the most. Momentum: Joe Burrow +848 and Patrick Mahomes -313 over the last 30 days.

Open in Start/Sit (any scoring) Open in the Trade Analyzer

More QB decisions

Joe Burrow or Josh Allen?Joe Burrow or Drake Maye?Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams?Patrick Mahomes or Caleb Williams?Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy?

All numbers are the 2026 season, refreshed nightly.